Economics & Markets

New Zealand Insights - September 2019

By Bevan Graham
Managing Director and Chief Economist, AMP Capital New Zealand New Zealand

key points

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Growth remains subdued

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Employment growth has slowed

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Overall inflation still in the sub-2% range

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Monetary policy outlook - more to come

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Time for fiscal policy to step up

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External accounts remain in good shape

Our base case scenario for the New Zealand economy has been a slowdown in growth as capacity constraints emerge, business costs rise and population growth slows. We had previously expected a temporary blip higher in growth in the second half of 2019 on the back of an easing in fiscal policy, but that has been overwhelmed by global developments and continued weakness in business confidence.

We are expecting a better domestic growth environment early next year as the global economy picks up. That reflects efforts to stimulate growth through easier monetary policy and an easing of trade tensions closer to the 2020 US election.

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Bevan Graham, NZ Managing Director & Chief Economist
  • Economics & Markets
  • New Zealand Insights

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Important notes

This article has been prepared to provide general information and does not constitute 'financial advice' for the purposes of the Financial Advisors Act 2008 (Act). An individual investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the information available in the relevant Product Disclosure Statement and seek professional advice. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors (New Zealand) Limited and the AMP Group (together, 'AMP') make no guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete or timely and do not make any warranties or representations in respect of results gained from its use. The information is not intended to infer that current or past returns are indicative of future returns. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of AMP. These views are subject to change depending on market conditions and other factors.

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