Growth remains subdued
Employment growth has slowed
Overall inflation still in the sub-2% range
Monetary policy outlook - more to come
Time for fiscal policy to step up
External accounts remain in good shape
Our base case scenario for the New Zealand economy has been a slowdown in growth as capacity constraints emerge, business costs rise and population growth slows. We had previously expected a temporary blip higher in growth in the second half of 2019 on the back of an easing in fiscal policy, but that has been overwhelmed by global developments and continued weakness in business confidence.
We are expecting a better domestic growth environment early next year as the global economy picks up. That reflects efforts to stimulate growth through easier monetary policy and an easing of trade tensions closer to the 2020 US election.
Subscribe to 'New Zealand Insights' below to receive my latest articles straight to your inboxBevan Graham, NZ Managing Director & Chief Economist
This article has been prepared to provide general information and does not constitute 'financial advice' for the purposes of the Financial Advisors Act 2008 (Act). An individual investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the information available in the relevant Product Disclosure Statement and seek professional advice. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors (New Zealand) Limited and the AMP Group (together, 'AMP') make no guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete or timely and do not make any warranties or representations in respect of results gained from its use. The information is not intended to infer that current or past returns are indicative of future returns. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of AMP. These views are subject to change depending on market conditions and other factors.