High levels of uncertainty generated by ongoing trade tensions is a continuing drag on global economic growth. The uncertainty is keeping business confidence suppressed, leading to a reluctance to invest.
This is mostly evident in manufacturing where global manufacturing PMIs are in contraction territory. Uncertainty will remain for a while, and the longer the uncertainty lasts, the deeper the manufacturing recession and the greater the risk the weakness spills over into the broader economy.
Read more on our outlook for the New Zealand and global economies, and across asset classes, in the October 2019 edition of Quarterly Strategic Outlook.
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