Research

New Zealand Insights - December 2018

By Bevan Graham
Managing Director and Chief Economist, AMP Capital New Zealand New Zealand

Key points

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Population growth has slowed but is still making a contribution to GDP growth

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Fiscal policy will be a key support for GDP growth over 2019

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Weak business confidence still a risk

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Labour market remains tight

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Monetary policy still on hold for the foreseeable future

The New Zealand economy continues to perform well. This is despite slowing population growth and the seemingly entrenched pessimism emanating from the business community. Annual GDP growth is still solid by mature developed economy standards but has clearly shifted down a level. The theme of capacity constrained growth continues to play out, as spare capacity is absorbed and a number of key sectors, such as construction and tourism, are at capacity. We continue to expect fiscal policy to be a key support for GDP growth over the course of 2019, though the forecast growth outlook remains largely unchanged.

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Important notes

This article has been prepared to provide general information and does not constitute 'financial advice' for the purposes of the Financial Advisors Act 2008 (Act). An individual investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the information available in the relevant Product Disclosure Statement and seek professional advice. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors (New Zealand) Limited and the AMP Group (together, 'AMP') make no guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete or timely and do not make any warranties or representations in respect of results gained from its use. The information is not intended to infer that current or past returns are indicative of future returns. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of AMP. These views are subject to change depending on market conditions and other factors.

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