New Zealand Insights - December 2017

By AMP Capital

The New Zealand economy remains a solid performer, but is going through a period of transition. We expect less impetus to growth from net migration over the next few years and believe the construction sector is at capacity. On the upside, the terms of trade are at an historical high, and consumer spending is expected to hold up well on the back of solid growth in labour income and fiscal support. But the big change since our last report is that fiscal policy looks set to be more stimulatory from 2018 than we had previously assumed.

Key points


Change of government adds extra uncertainty


Immigration slowing - but how far and how fast?


Fiscal policy expected to turn expansionary


Household spending solid, but housing imbalances remain


Labour market continues to perform strongly


Inflation and monetary policy outlook remains uncertain

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Important notes

This article has been prepared to provide general information and does not constitute 'financial advice' for the purposes of the Financial Advisors Act 2008 (Act). An individual investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the information available in the relevant Product Disclosure Statement and seek professional advice. While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors (New Zealand) Limited and the AMP Group (together, 'AMP') make no guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete or timely and do not make any warranties or representations in respect of results gained from its use. The information is not intended to infer that current or past returns are indicative of future returns. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of AMP. These views are subject to change depending on market conditions and other factors.

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