March 2022 – Please be aware of scammers falsely representing AMP Capital. AMP Capital is aware of an ongoing scam operation targeting customers and the broader community, offering inflated interest returns, available through fictitious investment vehicles, titled AMP Capital High Yield Fixed Return Global Market Fund. Through the use of phishing emails and phone calls, malicious operators are attempting to entice them to invest in a false product that features AMP Capital’s branding. Please be aware this is a not a legitimate product from AMP Capital.

AMP Capital does not approach potential customers via electronic direct mail (EDM) nor does the company solicit personal or financial information via email. If you are concerned that you may have been targeted by scammers, please contact us on 1800 658 404 from 8.30am to 5.30pm Monday to Friday (Sydney time). More information on scams can also be found on the ACCC’s website Scamwatch.

Economics & Markets

Australian housing finance is booming… but can it continue?

By Dr Shane Oliver
Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, AMP Sydney, Australia

What the data is saying

According to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) , the total value of new loan commitments for housing and within that, the value of owner occupier home loan commitments each reached record highs last month.

Some key figures include:

1. The total value of new loan commitments for housing rose 8.6 per cent to $26 billion (seasonally adjusted.) This represents a 31.2 per cent increase on December 2019.

2. The value of new owner occupier home loan commitments rose 8.7 per cent to $19.9 billion. This is 38.9 per cent higher than December 2019.

3. The value of owner-occupier approvals for existing dwellings rose 4.0 per cent, while approvals for new construction rose 15.3 per cent.

And this chart gives an idea of the patterns with Australian housing lending, excluding refinancing:

Sources: ABS, AMP Capital
Sources: ABS, AMP Capital

Why the jump?
The surge in housing finance, like the rebound in home prices, is being driven by a combination of a few factors. This includes record-low mortgage rates, home buyer incentives and economic recovery.

It also seems consistent with further gains in house prices ahead, as these loans are drawn down and listings remain relatively low


But, can it continue?

Right now, the rate of growth in total housing related debt is modest – with RBA credit data for housing debt showing a rise of 0.4% in December and 3.5% year on year – because existing borrowers are focussed on rapidly paying down debt and the housing finance commitment data leads the flow of new credit with a lag.

However, the RBA is likely to be starting to get a bit more concerned given the pace of the rebound in lending commitments and house prices, albeit it’s not that concerned at this stage as there is not much evidence of a deterioration in lending standards yet.

At the very least, it would make sense for home borrower incentives to be wound back in the months ahead and not extended. If housing credit growth accelerates significantly, I think we may see a renewed tightening in lending standards by year end or early next year. As was the case a few years ago, tighter lending standards rather than rate hikes are likely to be the RBA’s preferred path at least initially as it will likely remain premature for the RBA to start raising interest rates or ending bond buying entirely, considering continuing uncertainty and spare capacity in the wider economy at least out to the end of next year.

Subscribe to SMSF News using the form below to receive all of my articles

Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy & Chief Economist
Share this article

Subscribe to our Insights

Here's what we found for you

Here's what we found for you

Here's what we found for you

Here's what we found for you

Our Privacy Policy explains how we handle personal information and use cookies and website tracking. We will follow the cookie and tracking settings you have selected in your browser.

Important notes

While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455)  (AMP Capital) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided and must not be provided to any other person or entity without the express written consent of AMP Capital.


This article is not intended for distribution or use in any jurisdiction where it would be contrary to applicable laws, regulations or directives and does not constitute a recommendation, offer, solicitation or invitation to invest.

Cookies & Tracking on our website.  We use basic cookies to help remember selections you make on the website and to make the site work. We also use non-essential cookies, website tracking as well as analytics - so we can amongst other things, show which of our products and services may be relevant for you, and tailor marketing (if you have agreed to this). More details about our use of cookies and website analytics can be found here
You can turn off cookie collection and/or website tracking by updating your cookies & tracking preferences in your browser settings.