After a rough March quarter and in the midst of a steep recession, you’d be forgiven for thinking the market was void of opportunity. To the contrary, through considered and active management, we see some attractive price points and some potential opportunities. However, potential outcomes do remain very wide for both economies and for markets.
Even with hangovers from geo-political tensions between China and the US, Brexit and the Australian bushfires, markets started off the year in fairly good shape. We expected 2020 to be characterised by synchronous growth, and considered that some of the more cyclical areas, like emerging markets would do relatively well. We’d also considered that this is an election year for the US, which tends to be positive news for markets, as there is a history of sitting presidents not being re-elected if the economy turns sour on their watch1.
Despite signs pointing towards a reasonable year for those investors on approach to or in retirement, the black swan appeared, and we find ourselves pivoting to market conditions and re-forecasting to factor in unemployment, budget deficits and sharemarket dives not seen since World War II.
For now, we look to be fairly progressed through the worst of the social and market shocks. Markets became broken from about March 9 to March 20, but have since seen sharp rebounds as governments and central banks responded with stimulus and support packages at high and untested levels. A clearer picture of investment markets is starting to form.
Though the severity of market conditions can’t be understated, in our view, this doesn’t mean investment opportunity is wiped out. In the wake of the pandemic, we have identified opportunities which we believe are attractively priced, offer diversification benefits and potential for reasonable yield.
I, alongside my colleague Matthew Hopkins, hosted a webinar which speaks to how we have pivoted in response to the COVID-19 crisis, which you can access below.
Subscribe to Institutional Edition below to receive my latest articlesDarren Beesley, Head of Retirement Solutions
While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This document has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this document, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. The information in this document contains statements that are the author’s beliefs and/or opinions. Any beliefs and/or opinions shared are as at the date shown and are subject to change without notice. This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided and must not be provided to any other person or entity without the express written consent of AMP Capital.