Economics & Markets

Volatility: A sleeping giant

By Nader Naeimi
Head of Dynamic Markets and Portfolio Manager of Dynamic Markets Fund Sydney, Australia

Market volatility has been like the Incredible Hulk in 2018; a good-tempered scientist one minute, and a giant raging monster the next.

We first saw the scientist turn into the monster during the spectacular February market swoon. What followed were eight months of relative calm in which the mild-mannered scientist returned, luring investors back into the market, and into US equities in particular.

But as the monster re-emerged in October, the resulting washout was enormous. The S&P 500 dropped more than 9% in only 26 days from its 52-week high in September. That’s among the largest, fastest pullbacks in market history.

In the last three weeks of October, we saw a near-record amount of sell programs at some point during the trading day, and during that period more than 40% of New York Stock Exchange securities traded on a downtick versus uptick at some point during the trading day; the most lopsided panic-selling pressure since the sell-off that accompanied the European Union debt crisis of August to October 2011.

Silver linings

The upside is that whenever we’ve seen so much activity on the same side of a trade at the same time, for so long, it has almost always been a contrary indicator.

And, more importantly, US equities have finally closed the gap on what we believe was an unstainable divergence with the rest of the world in volatility terms as our key concern throughout this year has been false confidence in the ability of US equities to remain detached from the rest of the world.

A looming bottom

If the recent fall in US equities and the jump in volatility signalled the start of a much bigger decline and a likely bear market, then we should be selling now to avoid bigger losses to come. But while it would be reckless to dismiss (and not plan) for that possibility, on balance the evidence points to a looming bottom in the markets.

Outside equities, in interest rates, foreign exchange and commodities, markets are not pointing to a significant deceleration in growth - in fact US 10-year bond yields actually finished higher at the end of October than at the start of the month despite the colossal equity falls. Oddly, it feels like some sort of upside-down world where equity investors are more pessimistic than fixed income folks, but that’s where we are right now.

The overdone pessimism looks way too premature – with equities markets pricing for a contraction in economic activity and even a recession which seems unlikely to eventuate. There is no way we can argue that US equities are unambiguously cheap, but the sector is pricing a worst-case economic outcome where babies have been thrown out with the bathwater.

Final thoughts

In summary, while the stiff market decline and the sudden pick up in volatility might seem spectacular in a post-quantitative easing world, those who remember trading in the pre-quantitative easing era should know that the recent elevated volatility is actually pretty normal and should be viewed as a welcome return to market normality.

But much like getting caught in the cross-fire as Bruce Banner turns from scientist to Hulk, reactive decision making can be very costly in such circumstances, where cool heads, indicator-based investing and objective analysis should prevail.

  • Economics & Markets
  • Investment Strategies
  • SMSF News

Important notes

While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455)  (AMP Capital) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided and must not be provided to any other person or entity without the express written consent of AMP Capital.

Cookies & Tracking on our website.  We use basic cookies to help remember selections you make on the website and to make the site work. We also use non-essential cookies, website tracking as well as analytics - so we can amongst other things, show which of our products and services may be relevant for you, and tailor marketing (if you have agreed to this). More details about our use of cookies and website analytics can be found here
You can turn off cookie collection and/or website tracking by updating your cookies & tracking preferences in your browser settings.