Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights is a special commentary by Dr. Shane Oliver, Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy, on issues and trends affecting the economy and financial markets. Dr. Oliver is supported by a team of economists dedicated to delivering timely commentary and the asset allocation decisions for AMP Capital's diversified product range.
Australia’s less than certain election result
24 August 2010
- The unclear Australian election result has added to investor uncertainty in Australia and doesn’t augur well for stable visionary policymaking for the next term of government.
- Beyond a few financial market jitters and lost opportunities until the next election, the uncertain election outcome doesn’t justify big falls in Australian investment markets, as it’s unlikely to threaten Australia’s favourable longer-term prospects.
View Australia’s less than certain election result (PDF - 207 Kb)
Inflation, deflation or just 'lowflation'?
9 August 2010
- It is hard to see the surge in wheat prices over the last two months having anything other than a minor temporary impact on the rate of inflation.
- More fundamentally, thanks to continuing excess capacity in major industrialised countries, deflation is more of a risk than a surge in inflation.
- This means continuing low global interest rates and bond yields for some time to come.
- Deflation is less of a threat in Asia and Australia.
View Inflation, deflation or just 'lowflation'? (PDF - 331 Kb)
China slowing, not collapsing, and shares look attractive
29 July 2010
- The slowdown now underway in China should be seen as a normalisation of growth. It is unlikely to lead to a hard landing.
- China’s moves to prevent overheating and rebalance its economy have been successful, and tightening measures will start to be relaxed some time in the next two to three months.
- Chinese shares have been leading global shares lately and are worth keeping an eye on. Right now they are cheap and, with policy tightening largely over, may be in the process of bottoming ahead of a leg higher into year end. If this is the case, it augurs well for Asian and Australian shares (as well as global shares generally) on a six to 12 month view.
View China slowing, not collapsing, and shares look attractive (PDF - 446 Kb)
